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《大行》摩通降海爾智家(06690.HK)目標價至25元 首選美的(000333.SZ)
摩根大通發表研究報告指,如果中國家電股不應再以國內家電週期來估值,而應被視為現金牛收益、全球挑戰者成長與工業科技期權價值的組合——這正是該行認為投資人該問的重評問題。舊有框架——補貼、換機週期與利潤率——仍然重要,但卻忽略了更關鍵的轉型:中國B2C正成為資金基礎、海外OBM正成為成長引擎、而B2B工業科技則可能成為估值倍數擴張的驅動力。此刻這個議題之所以重要...
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《大行》摩通降海爾智家(06690.HK)目標價至25元 首選美的(000333.SZ)
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摩根大通發表研究報告指,如果中國家電股不應再以國內家電週期來估值,而應被視為現金牛收益、全球挑戰者成長與工業科技期權價值的組合——這正是該行認為投資人該問的重評問題。舊有框架——補貼、換機週期與利潤率——仍然重要,但卻忽略了更關鍵的轉型:中國B2C正成為資金基礎、海外OBM正成為成長引擎、而B2B工業科技則可能成為估值倍數擴張的驅動力。此刻這個議題之所以重要,是因為該板塊的定價仍停留在舊世界:10倍市盈率、6%的股息率與約20%的股東權益報酬率(2027年預測),且市場對2026至2027年中國國內需求放緩高度質疑。

該行同意中國需求將趨軟,但這不太可能是超額報酬(alpha)的來源。超額報酬應來自於辨識哪些公司能運用中國現金流來建立全球市佔率與B2B能力。這正是為什麼美的(000333.SZ)  +1.540 (+1.870%)   在該行看來最為突出。該行的偏好順序為:美的(「增持」;首選)> 海爾智家(06690.HK)  +0.540 (+2.606%)    Short selling $159.62M; Ratio 26.940%   (600690.SH)  +0.350 (+1.744%)   (「增持」)> 蘇泊爾(002032.SZ)  -0.080 (-0.186%)   (「增持」)> 格力(000651.SZ)  +0.320 (+0.845%)   (「中性」)> 老板電器(002508.SZ)  +0.370 (+2.297%)   (「中性」)> 科沃斯(603486.SH)  -2.080 (-3.435%)   (「減持」;最建議避開)。

摩根大通指,海爾智家(06690.HK)  +0.540 (+2.606%)    Short selling $159.62M; Ratio 26.940%   是一個具有吸引力且「壞消息已全面反映」的股票。市場對近期美國關稅帶來的盈利壓力已有充分預期,而其美國以外的海外核心業務依然保持健康,多個市場在市佔率擴大的同時亦實現利潤率提升,預計公司在2026至2028財年的淨利潤複合年增長率可達8%。該行指出,海爾智家目前的2026財年預測市盈率為8至9倍,總股東回報率達10%至11%(包括4%的股份回購收益率),估值提供了良好的介入機會。摩通將海爾智家H股的目標價由32元下調至25元,維持「增持」評級。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-10 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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