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《大行》瑞銀:倘美今年加息 本港樓市及地產股將面臨下行風險 油價上漲衝擊本港零售
瑞銀就中東衝突對內地及本港樓市影響發表報告,指出據美利率期貨,油價上漲已導致市場將今年加息機率定價為45%,一個月前市場預期今年將減息兩次。該行指,儘管預期持續人口流入支撐本港租金增長,但若美聯儲加息,本港住宅物業價格及地產股將面臨下行風險,情況類似2022年4月至2023年8月的加息周期。另一方面,由於內地經濟增長放緩且政策利率減息可能性降低,內地住宅樓市...
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《大行》瑞銀:倘美今年加息 本港樓市及地產股將面臨下行風險 油價上漲衝擊本港零售
Recommend
35
Positive
32
Negative
32
 
 

瑞銀就中東衝突對內地及本港樓市影響發表報告,指出據美利率期貨,油價上漲已導致市場將今年加息機率定價為45%,一個月前市場預期今年將減息兩次。該行指,儘管預期持續人口流入支撐本港租金增長,但若美聯儲加息,本港住宅物業價格及地產股將面臨下行風險,情況類似2022年4月至2023年8月的加息周期。另一方面,由於內地經濟增長放緩且政策利率減息可能性降低,內地住宅樓市或面臨輕微的負面影響。

零售市道方面,瑞銀指油價上漲意味機票價格上漲導致旅客減少及成本通脹,對本港零售物業構成負面影響,但對內地零售物業具支撐作用。內地商場較少依賴遊客消費,且內地遊客或減少外遊,與新冠期間情況有些類似,當時內地奢侈品商場表現優於本港。本港的成本通脹高於內地,亦可能導致更多消費流向內地,對領展(00823.HK)  +0.680 (+1.888%)    Short selling $56.81M; Ratio 29.066%   及DFI零售等零售構成負面影響。內地溫和通脹亦有助於提升購物中心的零售總額。

寫字樓方面,報告指若中東衝突持續,亞洲股市可能最受衝擊,進而可能對金融業招聘造成負面影響。隨著美國十年期國債孳息率上升,可能對地產公司短期內進行資產處置構成挑戰。內地寫字樓市場則由於供過於求的結構性問題依然存在,影響相對有限。

該行表示,在衝突長期化的情境下,上述負面因素將對本港地產股如新地(00016.HK)  +5.400 (+4.180%)    Short selling $586.78M; Ratio 87.712%   、恒地(00012.HK)  +0.460 (+1.591%)    Short selling $96.98M; Ratio 58.160%   、港鐵(00066.HK)  +0.640 (+2.001%)    Short selling $91.19M; Ratio 66.183%   及九倉置業(01997.HK)  +0.640 (+2.829%)    Short selling $18.30M; Ratio 30.481%   造成衝擊,且隨著美債孳息上升,投資者或要求更高股息率。長實集團(01113.HK)  +1.120 (+2.519%)    Short selling $37.97M; Ratio 32.732%   及信置(00083.HK)  +0.210 (+1.828%)    Short selling $43.14M; Ratio 59.760%   股息派發的確定性更高。華潤萬象(01209.HK)  -0.620 (-1.318%)    Short selling $56.17M; Ratio 61.565%   、恒隆地產(00101.HK)  +0.310 (+3.551%)    Short selling $8.59M; Ratio 22.685%   及太古地產(01972.HK)  +0.460 (+2.023%)    Short selling $5.46M; Ratio 14.892%   則有望受惠內地潛在奢侈品銷售回流及經濟復甦。(fc/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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