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<Research>JPM Expects SANDS CHINA LTD to Double DPS to HKD1 This Yr; Rating Overweight
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SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) delivered weaker-than-expected results in 4Q25, with a margin slump mainly due to business mix, poor mass-hold, and OPEX creep, JPMorgan's research report wrote. The broker revised down its forecast for the group before the earnings release, so it only adjusted the future EBITDA forecast down by about 3% this time.

Although Sands' stock price has sagged by 10% over the past month, underperforming the HSI's 2% rise and remaining roughly flat with peer stock prices, this reaction is excessive, in the broker's view. Sands' weak performance in 4Q25 was mainly due to seasonal factors like the NBA preseason or non-recurring factors such as poor mass-hold and the National Games.

Related NewsSANDS CHINA LTD 4Q25 Net Revenues Up 16.4% YoY, Adj. Property EBITDA Up 6.5%
The broker still expected Sands' market share to grow this year and anticipated that the annual DPS will double to HKD1 starting this year, implying a dividend yield of 5.4% at the current price. With progressive dividend growth, the annual DPS was expected to rise to over HKD1.5 by 2028.

JPMorgan rated SANDS CHINA LTD as Overweight, with the target price lowered from HKD23 to HKD22.
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