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<CN Home>Fitch: CN Home Mkt Has Not Bottomed Out, May Maintain Slow Downswing
Recommend 42 Positive 58 Negative 36 |
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Fitch Ratings' Director of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings, Lulu Shi, stated that China's real estate market has not yet bottomed out, with recovery being unstable, both volume and prices retreating, and divergence persisting. Summarizing China's real estate market trend so far this year, the rating agency said that the market showed signs of stabilization in both volume and prices in the first quarter, bringing forward the recovery since the Politburo meeting on September 26, 2024. However, starting in April, sales and prices of new homes ebbed back, with the decline widening from June. The actual downfall in new home prices may be deeper, despite having considered the impact of changes in sales structure. In the secondary housing market, monthly price decreases have also deepened since April, with T1 cities being no exception. This evidenced Fitch's previous view that the sustainability of the early-year real estate recovery remained uncertain. Looking ahead to 2026, Fitch forecast that the real estate sales in China may drift lower under structural challenges, including demographic changes, high unsold inventory, an uncertain employment environment, and low homebuyer affordability. On the other hand, based on the government's proactive attitude, policy optimization and stimulation will remain in place. Fitch judged that the entire industry is unlikely to experience a plunge as in previous years, but is more likely to see a steady single-digit annual slump. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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